Updated: it appears someone got their dates wrong in the above chart: FY21 should be FY22, and FY25 should probably be FY26. I've adjusted my dating below.
There you have it (from Nikon's Investor Relations Event on May 26, 2022).
You probably need some help parsing this chart, so let me try.
FY21 actually refers to the year ended March 31, 2022. In that year, the F-mount cameras and lenses accounted for about 30% of Nikon Imaging's sales, or something close to 53b yen.
FY25 actually refers to the year ending March 31, 2026. By that point, F-mount cameras and lenses will account for just less than 5% of Nikon Imaging's sales, or something below 10b yen.
Put another way, in the next four years Nikon will be phasing out DSLR sales, though not discontinuing them completely. Given Nikon's stated "concentrate...in high value-added products", it would suggest that the three current FX DSLRs (D780, D850, and D6) and the primary, best-selling side of the FX lens set are likely to be the products that remain in the lineup through 2026.
Some of you will take this as "bad news." I actually take it as "good news." The fear has been that Nikon would just summarily discontinue DSLR products at some point in the near future. While that seems likely for DX, the fact that there's a clear tail of sales out for another three years indicates that the FX side will likely just be allowed to taper naturally. Put another way: Nikon's DSLR future is actually up to you, the customers. Keep buying and Nikon just might encourage that tail to continue past 2026. Stop buying, and Nikon will see that as a message to close the DSLR shop.
