An interesting thing happened recently behind the scenes. Nikon apparently was going to provide some huge discounts on F-mount lenses (e.g. US$4400 rebate on a 180-400mm f/4E TC FL ED VR lens, and similar big discounts on four other exotics as well as three f/1.4 primes). Nikonrumors published a hint on a Wednesday and a full list the next day. By the end of that second day, Nikon had apparently cancelled the program. At least that was the gist of an email B&H sent to its affiliates.
So, nothing announced, nothing launched, basically.
The question I have is this: for nikonrumors to have published that list, it meant that there was a leak out of the NikonUSA dealer network, because that's the only place the rebates were discussed, let alone specifically enumerated. In the past few months several dealer leaks have occurred, and at least one of those was on nikonrumors via Service Photo, one of that site's advertisers. The NikonUSA staff was not happy with this, I'm told, and apparently has considered punishments.
But that's not the real story here. The real story is that Nikon DSLRs (and lenses) are nearing last call. The only Nikon DSLR that clearly survives December's European Union regulation change is the D780. The Japanese plant that makes a number of the F-mount lenses is undergoing a complete overhaul. Nikon's market share in DSLRs has dropped to 20% or less, depending upon which statistics you believe, and the overall DSLR market has plummeted to the point where total units will potentially drop below 800k this year, worldwide.
It seems incredible that it's only been seven years since the D850 was introduced. For much of its first two years of life, not only was the D850 the best all-around DSLR you could buy from anyone, it was in my top three interchangeable lens cameras, as well. Today a new D850 is selling for US$2500, which if we judge solely on features and image quality, still makes it a screaming bargain. It's just that flappy thing in its middle that keeps it from being a camera everyone wants to buy today.
I'm on record as saying that I don't believe that DSLRs will be continued to be manufactured by Canon and Nikon in 2025 (though the D780 is a possible exception given that it uses an image sensor still in production for other Nikon cameras (Z6 II, Zf) and can survive the EU regulation changes.
What usually happens at tail-end of market is that the camera makers use price in distribution third-world or emerging countries to sell out the last units. I believe that's where DSLRs are headed in 2025: South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and maybe India. By 2026 I doubt we'll see them anywhere, though it's unclear how much arbitraged gray market inventory is still sitting in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
So, if you're a dedicated mirror slapper, should Nikon actually finally offer those big lens discounts, it's probably your last chance to pick up superb optics at unheard of prices; at least new, with warranty.
Nikon's a little busy recovering from the Olympics at the moment (and some other things we should hear about by the end of summer), so it might take a bit for the next deals to appear, but I'm confident they will.
Meanwhile, Sigma has started discontinuing some of their Canon EF mount lenses, in particular two well regarded ones, the 24-105mm f/4 DG OS HSM and the 500mm f/4 DG OS HSM. Elvis is in the process of leaving the building, folks.
